THREATS TO BUSINESS INSOLVENCY IN TIMES OF OVERLAPPING CRISES [Part II]

 

 RECESSIONAS A FACTOR IN BUSINESS INSOLVENCY

 

The second threat is recession, whichrepresents the decline that occurs when productive capacities are not fully utilized, either because foreign orders are falling, demand for goods and services in the domestic market is falling, or both. [1] Several countries are facing this scenario today, including Germany, not only because the high energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine absorb much of people's purchasing power, but consumers  themselves  are running out of money as a result of inflation, which causes a change in consumption habits.

 

An example may better represent the difficulties faced.  Tobias Plaz no longer knows how he can continue to run his bakery business profitably in Germany. At the end of August he received a letter from his gas supplier. Instead of paying just under ten cents per kilowatt hour of gas, you now have to pay just under 35 cents. The company alone uses about 80,000 kilowatt hours of gas for heating and hot water. The billing of the gas supplier's monthly budget will increase from 721 to 2588 euros from October 1, 2022. This does not even include the energy costs of the furnace. But Plaz still has a gas contract in place under the old conditions until the end of the year.[2]

 

 An increase of 360% of light and gas as a result of the war in Ukraine, represents for most European countries a great challenge, beyond the measures of restriction of use that are being carried out.  The rise in energy and raw material costs cannot be absorbed by companies, which will have to pass them on to prices, playing on the inflationary spiral.  The problem is compounded by the fact that the recession is accompanied by constant inflation.

 

Specialists point out that the fire must be put out before it gets out of control. [3] That seems to be the slogan of the  countries affected by the gigantic inflation that travels the world and that reached historical highs in decades.   The United States and the United Kingdom with the  highest levels of the  last 40 years and Latin America, also under pressure from the escalating cost of living, force  the firefighters in charge of the fiscal and monetary policy of the countries to workat full speed.

A toxic mix of politics, inflation and higher interest rates is threatening the financial system in the UK, sending a shockwave through global markets and providing a warning to governments around the world of the dangers of the new economic era we are entering [4]                       

 What does high inflation have to do with an economic recession? [5] A lot. When inflation soars, central banks raise interest rates (the cost of borrowing) to discourage the purchase of goods or services. It is a policy that seeks to reduce consumption and investment in the hope that prices will fall. This mechanism controls inflation, but at the same time slows down economic growth that causes recession and is a threat to the solvency of companies.

It is rightly argued that yes and ait is quite difficult to choose the right interest rate for a single economy. How do you choose the right rate if your neighbors are also increasing theirs? When a central bank raises its interest rates, one way this curbs inflation is by appreciating the currency. Higher interest rates attract foreign investors, causing the exchange rate to rise. A stronger currency makes imports cheaper and reduces inflation. [6] This situation does not only affect governments, but its consequences spread throughout the business circuit conditioning companies.

 

          So, for example, driven by soaring gas prices, some companies that make steel, fertilizer and other raw materials are moving their operations to the United States, attracted by more stable energy prices and government support. This can cause certain changes in supply chains and in the business circuit. [7] Inflationin Europe is forecast to soar more than expected as recession nears the energy crisis.

The compensation with the increase in prices has a limit, and although governments provide aid packages to individuals, companies are left out of that benefit.  It warns that the theater of the current war between Russia and Ukraine is not limited to a geographical scope, but also attacks the economic systems of the countries, which is why it is rightly stated that the global economy is in intensive care. 

 

When the economic horizon is fraught with uncertainties, negative expectations impact medium-sized companies more significantly than large ones. Just look, for example, at what is happening in Spain, reported by the "middle market index" - who estimate that hiring will be frozen and investments will fall in the coming months. In other words, the scenario becomes complex, which sharpens decision-making in terms of entrepreneurship and risk-taking.[8]

 

Any prolongation of the crisis affects business productivity and interrupts the cycle of the economy, making it slower with lower demand for goods and services.  With the Fed rising borrowing costs, mortgage rates rising,  and the housing market slowing slow,  a  serious slowdown in activity portends.   If Americans don't feel good about the economy and purchases of durable goods like cars and furniture are slowing down, you can see the direction the economy will take in much of the world.[9]

 

TheBank of England said it would buy longer-term UK debt to help restore stability. Perhaps the financial situation in that country is giving an early warning of the dangers that other developed markets will also face.

 

The context of credit restriction that any recession entails adds a greater deterrent factor in companies that cannot service their debt or meet their commitments, especially of a fiscal or labor nature, in countries where the tax burden, the intervention of unions and the labor trial industry is very high (Argentina, among others). Thus, the company as an organization of goods and services, is cornered by the lack of liquidity and a certain degree of conflict, which prolonged in time exposes it to critical situations.

          As sales revenue and profits decline, the company will reduce hiring, freeze it completely, or proceed with layoffs. In an effort to reduce costs and improve the bottom line, you can stop buying new equipment, reduce research and development, and stop launching new products (a factor in revenue growth and market share).  Marketing and advertising expenses can also be reduced. These cost-cutting efforts will have an impact on other businesses, both large and small, that provide the goods and services used.[10]

             

          It is observed that recessions impact companies with a tightening of credit conditions.  To be sure, during the recession, standards for lending in the market tend to be stricter and lenders are more selective about the risks they are willing to take at any rate.  Even [11]regardless of size, the vast majority struggle to repay their debt, on which most depend to finance ongoing operations or ordinary draft.

 

        The recession will also affect the company's accounts receivable , inventory replenishment costs and  liquidity. Without neglecting to warn that it conditions consumers and the entire supply chain, which forces them to reconvert objectives. Customers who owe money may make payments more slowly, later, or not at all. Then, with reduced revenue, the affected business may be forced to pay its own bills more slowly, later, or in smaller increments than its original credit agreement required. [12]

 

       Making late or delinquent payments reduces the valuation of debt, bonds and the ability to obtain financing which, as noted, is very restricted in a recessionary context because cash flow decreases.   The company's ability to repay its debt (pay interest on money it has borrowed) can also be affected, resulting in default on bonds and other debts and further damaging the credit rating.  What if it is general and permanent over time, can cause insolvency.

       If somehow the curve of business insolvencies is not contained or flattened, and a sovereign debt crisis is added, the symbiosis will have a greater impact on the entire productive system, which the government must readjust if it intends to somehow get out of the state of shock or hypertrophy. Without firms, without innovation, productivity growth stops and the depression will deepen.   Any response that is sought, will depend to a large extent on the  endogenous conditions of the economy, but, according to specialists, a phased approach to temper this threat is recommended:

         In the first stage, relief measures should be used to prevent viable companies from being forced into insolvency prematurely and causing a knock-on effect. Without intervention, even normally effective frameworks could lead to systemic failure, in which a flood of insolvencies would trigger forced selloffs and cause asset prices to collapse.[13]

                

The top half of the front page of the Daily Mail  newspaper has a headline referring to the crash of 'Wall St. " describing the massive drop in the value of stocks,  on what became known as Black Thursday, October 24, 1929.

               These relief measures are extremely useful in emerging markets, where creditors often use the insolvency system as an instrument to collect debts, but which also has another side: it is the necessary alternative for companies to enter intensive therapy long enough to reorganize their liabilities in an orderly manner.

    

                   In the second stage, the main challenge is to respond to the growing number of companies that need an insolvency process to survive. In this phase, it is essential to ensure the smooth operation of the debt renegotiation and restructuring mechanisms in the appropriate legal areas with courts specialized in the subject, which provide a quick solution to the conflicts that business insolvency poses. If the legal framework is not dynamic enough to manage shortages, protect credit and respond quickly to economic reality, restructuring does not work.

 

              Finally, in the third stage, the emphasis should be on people facing financial difficulties after the crisis. This translates into a special procedure for individuals, consumers who must resort to a debt discharge system, not of the same entity as companies, but that if it allows them an adequate recovery to reintegrate into the circuit of business and consumption.

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[1]Henrik Böhme "Recession, the fearsome specter of economic contraction" in https://www.dw.com/es 18.09.2022

[2] Sabine Kinkartz "Is a wave of bankruptcies looming in Germany?"  https://www.dw.com/ 08.09.2022

[3] Cecilia Barria, Is inflation more harmful than recession...? https://www.lanacion.com.ar

[4] James Mackintosh, "Britain's financial disaster is a warning to the world" 1.10.2022 in www.wsj.com

[5] Cecilia Barria ob. cit.,

[6] Tooze, Adan Ob. cit.

[7] David Uberti, "High natural gas prices push European manufacturers to switch to the United States. https://www.wsj.com/ 21.09.2022

[8] Antonio, Lorenzo "73% of managers of medium-sized companies..." on ttps://www.eleconomista.es 3.09.2022

[9] Business week in https://www.nytimes.com/ 25.09.2022

[10] How does the recession affect businesses? https://lainversionhoy.com/ 25.01.2022

[11] How does the recession affect businesses? https://lainversionhoy.com/ 25.01.2022

[12] How does the recession affect businesses? https://lainversionhoy.com/ 25.01.2022

[13] Ceyla Pazarbasioglu and  Alfonso Garcia Blackberry Ob. cit.

THREATS TO BUSINESS INSOLVENCY IN TIMES OF OVERLAPPING CRISES [Part I]

 

   THREATS TO BUSINESS INSOLVENCY   

 IN TIMES OF OVERLAPPING CRISES[a]

This paper will address what are considered threats to business insolvency in times of overlapping crises.   Debt crisis, recession and deflation in a global stage of financial thrombosis  represent a  multidirectional challenge unprecedented in history for all economic agents.   Over-indebted states, widespread loss of economic activity, food and energy crises and  inflation that distorts not only economic  variables but also habits of producers and consumers, point to a change in the social cycle that    It increases the vulnerabilities of companies and exposes them  to various risks.

 

               Risk is the probability of a security incident occurring, materializing a threat and causing losses that, if not contained, lead to the disappearance of the company. On the other hand, a threat is any action that takes advantage of a vulnerability to threaten the security of a system[i] or structure. In particular, the potential negative effect on some of the elements of the undertaking as an economic operator.

 

              From the proposed perspective, vulnerabilities become relevant, which are nothing more  than the conditions and characteristics of an organization that make it susceptible to threats, especially those that enhance or aggravate insolvency and  are exogenous in nature, compromising its sustainability and future.   Taking risks rampantly in all contexts has consequences.

I.  BUSINESS INSOLVENCY DOES NOT ASSIMILATE TO SOVEREIGN INSOLVENCY

 

The first threat to be analyzed is the sovereign debt crisis. [ii] While all economic operators are  subject to cycles, they arenot comparable to insolvencies.  They move at different stagesofany business cycle and their  market impacts differ, as does their treatment.

 

It is enough to consider that in corporate insolvency the rights of creditors are very defined within the framework of an insolvency law, unlike what happens in the sovereign, where creditors have neither court nor defined procedure for the protection of their claims.  There is a strong reluctance in the global theater to a sovereign insolvency law, which is why debt restructuring engineering is inadequate.

 

                         Unlike what happens in the private sector, countries do not go bankrupt and that gives greater confidence for chronic indebtedness, even if it means stagnation. Moreover, all governments rationally make decisions of this nature, knowing that the default will have to be borne by a future government.  What  is economically necessary is often politicallycorrect. This short-term view explains the failure of many populists national economies.

          

            Anne Kruger, in a report to the IMF in 2002, argued that the problem of how to deal with situations in which sovereign debt is unsustainable became more pressing in the eighties, when private capital flows—composed mostly of loans from private banks to sovereign entities—increased much more than official flows.

 

           Subsequently, in the nineties, there was an explosive growth in private flows, both in the form of bonds and bank loans. This diversity of debt instruments makes it even more difficult to handle situations where sovereign debt has become unsustainable. This [iii] interaction between the different types of crises, undoubtedly impact the company and although  it may not  cause insolvency, it cannot enhance it.  

Crises can be exchange, debt, or banking. Thus, it can be observed that the run on deposits generates a demand for assets (currency crisis), which in turn affects the balance sheets of banks producing a mismatch (banking crisis). The sovereign debt crisis causes the lack of access to credit in the market (exchange rate crisis) which in turn leads to an increase in foreign currency debt. In summary, as some authors point out, these crises cause, separately or acting jointly, loss of liquidity, credit retraction, contractionary monetary policy and fall in GDP[iv] , affecting private solvency.

      

                 The debt crisis is not only a consequence of another type of crisis, but also a cause. The fall in GDP because of a monetary depreciation andloss of reserves causes an increase in the risk premium (country risk) that impacts deteriorating solvency.

 

                  Given this scenario, investors seek better assets and returns, which induces the sovereign not to raise enough funds to refinance liabilities and declare their default.  In the domestic sector, this produces credit constraints and lack of liquidity that affect the normal business development.

 

               By any of these paths, it is warned that private enterprise and society in general, suffer the consequences. It is the so-called social cost: recession, cutting the chain of payments, unemployment, poverty. For example, the social costs of the "lost decade" (1980) for Latin America were substantial. According to ECLAC estimates, the incidence of poverty increased sharply between 1980 and 1990, from 40.5 per cent to 48.3 per cent of the population.[v]

                These days the World Bank warned that the economy is heading towards recession and "a series of financial crises in emerging and developing markets that would do lasting damage. "The cause would be in   the strong monetaryadjustment aimed at reducing the risks of inflation that worsen the current economic slowdown.  The combination of monetary and fiscal tightening could lead to a sharpfall in activity.[vi]

          

            In this scenario, it would be prudent for heavily indebted countries to drastically reduce public spending, as Ecuador recently did. Because there are few financing options, due to rising global interest rates, emerging markets are prevented from taking advantage of the global bond market. Voluntary restructuring is necessary in these contexts[vii].  For the case of the South African countryrestructuringor the  debt with China, to be able to manage and  even control certain local economic variables  that suffer from the international context: rise in interest rates, inflation and economic slowdown.  The new abnormality will be for many countries the crucial management of the fiscal deficit.

 

           Undoubtedly, today as yesterday, the rise in the price of the dollar means problems for the economies of the world.  This translates into slowing growth and problems with inflation and its derivatives. Banking is not  without risk.  [viii] In the early   1980s, Argentina's private banking system, which had experienced explosive growth since 1977,  was  severely rocked by the bankruptcy of the country's two largest commercial  banks and  the near insolvency of many other banks and finance companies. [ix] That ephetum spillover compromised private sector companies, which were suddenly sunk in a context of significant credit constraint.

 

In March 1980 the banking crisis broke out in Argentina with the liquidation of the Regional Exchange Bank. Thefall of this bank pushes a banking crisis in the country, in  an adverse context for all of Latin America in terms of sovereign debt crisis. Inthe photo you can see BIR savers claiming their deposits.

         The crisis experienced today by three companies in the non-banking financial sector in Mexico, such as Unifin, Crédito Real and Alphacredit, has set off alarms in the market and requires, in the face of this reminiscence of 1980, some attention.  Markets are flashing red  given the overlapping conditions of vulnerability.  It should be remembered that what lubricates the crisis by the slope, is the lack of confidence in decisions and the official absence of transparent information. Its "avalanche" effect is impetuous and there are few signs that manage to warn of disaster in time, because snow, like banking crises, always slides violently and once started, its arrest is not easy.

 

           In this situation, vulnerabilities increase. A stronger dollar makes the debts that emerging-market governments and companies have incurred in U.S. dollars more expensive to repay. Emerging-market governments have $83 billion in emerging-market debt  maturing at the end of next year, according to data from the Institute of International Finance covering 32 countries. This is a fact that companies should observe as they enter the year 2023, because the signs of tension are widespread.[x]

 

        The poor control of risk and excessive credit and spending by authorities, fitnot only with countries in default, but with banks and companies.  In other words, all economic agents suffer disparate effects.  That is why it is important that business units manage risk control and evaluate the situation,  especially in countries where economic and political improvisation produce serious distortions to the economy and impact on business costs (inflation, exchange controls, export withholdings, credit restrictions) this translates into job cuts,  negative expectations of investment, industrial contraction and changing consumer preferences. ][xi]

                      

          Threats do not discriminate on company size.  Ford said  it is paying more for parts and materials to offset the effects of inflation.  Higher payouts added about $1 billion in unexpected costs in the third quarter.  The company said in July that it was facing inflationary pressures that would affect a variety of costs, totaling about $3 billion for the year. [xii] These levels of distortion modify any planned plan.

       As several sectors, especially startups, are doing in exceptional situations[xiii], exceptional measures must be taken.   Start-ups are questioning all aspects of the business, including their staffing levels and sustained access to capital for the coming months.   Crises change the ways business is approached.  Financial conditions are acting as an obstacle to any business projection affecting solvency, [xiv]  depending on debt levels.

 

            These levels of indebtedness also differ between the economic blocs; hence the forecasts are different and the decisions to be taken as well. For example, the US has a high level of debt: 150% of GDP and corporate indebtedness is also high. Specialists observe for the coming months, a potential increase in delinquency, growing problems and probable fall of companies (corporate bankruptcies).   While, in Asia, they have a very high level of savings, a large reserve of domestic capital that allows them to self-finance and not depend so much on external flows such as Latin America or the US private sector. [xv]  When easy money disappears, problems appear.

 

                 What is the context facing companies in the face of a sovereign debt crisis?  As currencies lose value, inflation rates rise. The money that emerging market countries borrowed at "low" interest rates in US dollars becomes a growing mountain of debt and a time bomb that forces them to manage on the edge of the abyss.

 

If the theater of operations is not bad enough, foreign investors, to escape the ravages of currency depreciation, run into the hills. The State is left without financing and so are companies. [xvi] Undoubtedly, credit restriction runs in all directions, which is why obre-indebtedness, default with sovereign debt restructuring, bank failures and depressed investment are serious threats to business efficiency.

According to economists, over-indebtedness is inevitable. It is the natural tendency of all economic agents who postpone until tomorrow the payment of the outstanding invoice. [xvii] It happens that each of these bills has its own vice and propitiate innumerable economic phenomena, which, like germs, spread very quickly throughout the social body. This situation of economic gridlock causes great damage to companies because it affects their ability to develop, causing solvency crises, which, without adequate therapy, can degenerate into hypertrophy first and then into financial collapse.

    In 1985 Bolivia, like much of Latin America, suffered hyperinflation with high social costs, raising poverty rates.

The debt crises of the seventies and eighties were painful experiences, which have not been properly studied in the financial education of Latin American countries. Economic history, which many  political establishments repudiate, taught that these countries had large burdens of foreign currency debt. At that time, the world economy was going through serious "imbalances" that led to high levels of inflation, so the US Federal Reserve decided, as today, to increase interest rates to contain this process.

 

The consequences were severe sovereign debt crises and hyperinflationary processes (Argentina 1989, Mexico 1982, 1987) that devastated the private sector.  The region began to recover only in 1989, following a massive restructuring of external debt promoted by then-US Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady. [xviii] When countries cannot borrow by issuing colored papers, bonds,  etc.,  they resort to  syndicated loans, as in the 1980s that as was pointed out so many bad experiences brought.  Coincidence or not, specialists indicate that the strategy now followed by the Fed is largely based on the lessons of those years.[xix]

 

 Syndicated loans, grouped among a group of lenders, were the dominant source of private foreign financing for emerging markets until the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s. [xx] Those times have returned, in the face of a global situation that restricts credit and forces many countries with weak economic structures to continue borrowing due to the lack of fiscal discipline.  Private sector companies need to pay more attention to this stage in financial and industrial history.

 

Losing patience and deciding without caution or based on predictions, can cause sudden death  or  business collapse.  Hastecan lead tothe closure of the company, its sale or liquidation in less time than one believes.  The deadlines of governments to enter into rescue agreements with international credit organizations, in the face of an episode of debt crisis, are not those of companies, which,  at all times, are left to their own devices and  will have to make economic decisions in a context of higher inflation, recession and default.

 

 Banking crises, skyrocketing inflation, sovereign debt defaults, and economic booms and busts find a common origin in monetary instability. Each of these evils inspires calls for policy changes, many of which threaten free societies. Karl Schiller, Germany's finance minister from 1966 to 1972, got the point right when he observed that "stability is not everything, but without stability, everything is nothing."[xxi]

The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers took place on September 15, 2008 in the USA. It is considered the starting point of the financial crisis, no public funds were allocated for its rescue ashappened withNorthern Rock in the United Kingdom. This dilemma of governments can perhaps be repeated in the immediate future. 

The view of the banks in this scenario is very articulated. Acrisis is beginning and therefore increases the forecasts of insolvencies in the face of the tightening of monetary policy that causes higher financing costs and limits the demand for loans, while credit losses rise.[xxii]

                     

             That a group of banking regulators appointed by the US president is considering “new rules to require large regional banks" to  join the financial buffers that could be used in times of crisis, isa preemptive sign that should be considered by companies in their projections for the coming months.  Accordingto analysts, they include regional companies increasing long-term debt that can help absorb losses in the event of their own insolvency.[xxiii]

 

            It is worth asking whether preventive measures of this nature are necessary. Is its cost  justified...? The answer would be yes. The reason is that the constant growth of certain companies and banks has introduced new risks into the financial system.  Thebalance sheets in some cases are so large that it may be difficult to liquidate such a company in an orderly manner if one fails. [xxiv] The current economic context requires cutting threats and prioritizing all types of early warning.

 

           Governments might well ask: How many companies or banks should disappear?  Is it a matter of quantity, complexity or quality?  The risk of prolonging  the crisis and weighing on productivity can lead to an economic collapse in the private sector, with its social effects. [xxv] It is preferable in these cases to have flexible legal tools  that  allow to cushion crises or give companies with economic imbalances or in business insolvency, timely  channels that favor restructuring.  It is the market itself that will determine by a process of creative destruction which continue and which do  not.

 

            That banking regulators are pushing plans for  banks to  be liquidated without a government bailout gives an idea that the authorities are considering the possibility  of encountering a "black swan of  magnitude" that implies, as in 2008,  to come to the rescue of certain companies or banks, considered "essential" with public funds.  Situation that in the current context would aggravate all economic indices, so they are inviting them to issue long-term debt  as a possible way out.  It is time to address instruments to manage "perceived risks" because the threat of having economic conglomerates too large to fail is not a fiction, it is a reality.

 

A sensitive fact to consider is that there are currently many central banks increasing the interest rate, which implies a broad expansionary wave of that monetary policy.  Adan Tooze [xxvi] points out that as far as advanced economies are concerned, the era of globalization since the 1990s has been one of disinflation and monetary expansion by central banks. Now that balance is being reversed, and on a global scale.

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[a] The full version of this article was published on the author's profile on linkedin October 2022

https://www.linkedin.com/in/especialista-derecho-insolvencia/

Notes: Introductión and part  I

[i] Threats vs. Vulnerability, do you know how they differ? https://www.incibe.es/

[ii] We define the debt crisis as An economic phenomenon that countries are going through, dDue to funding problems and indebtedness. Normaly related to difficulties in the payment of their commitments or management of Interest rates. https://economipedia.com/ 

[iii] https://www.imf.org/es/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp111202

[iv] Cosentino, Adrián, and other. Ob. cit., p. 215

[v] Jose Antonio Ocampo Barbara Stallings and others. "The Latin American debt crisis from the historical perspective" ECLAC – UNITED NATIONS 2014, p. 42 ff.

[vi] Andrew Duehren "World Bank warns of global recession next year if central banks raise interest rates too high” https://www.wsj.com/ 15.09.2022   

[vii] Sara Schaefer Muñoz and Ryan Dube, "Ecuador reaches agreement with China to restructure its debt" https://www.wsj.com/ 19.09.2022

[viii] Chelsey Dulaney,  Megumi Fujikawa and Rebecca Feng, "The rise of the dollar means problems for global economies" in https://www.wsj.com/ 18.09.2022

[ix] By Jone of Onis “Argentine banking system shaken by major bankruptcies in last month" 28.0.1980 at www.nytimes.com

[x]  Chelsey Dulaney,  Megumi Fujikawa and Rebecca Feng cit.,

[xi] The world is falling apart": the harsh diagnosis of startups in the midst of the crisis on Wall Street" https://www.infobae.com/ 17/05/2022.

[xii] Nora Eckert, “Ford warns parts shortage, higher supplier costs are expected to hurt profits" www.wsj.com 19.09.2022.

[xiii] This is the name given to a start-up, usually with a high technological component, with great growth possibilities and that, in general, supports an innovative idea that stands out from the general line of the market. The search for constant innovation often characterizes these entrepreneurs, who know how to take advantage of the opportunity presented by new digital technologies linked to an innovative business idea. https://www.bbva.com/

[xiv] Natalia Kidd y Carlos Meneses, “La war unleashed by Putin strikes and divides the Summit of the Americas" in https://www.diariodecuyo.com.ar/  3/06/2022.

[xv] Martín Redrado, "Dollars go like water between your fingers to the Central Bank" https://www.infobae.com/ 5.06.2022

[xvi] Steve H Hanke Ob. Cit.

[xvii] Alan Minc "The challenge of the future" Barcelona 1986 p. 48

[xviii] Ernesto Winter, ¿Will the Fed to strangle America Latin? https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/

[xix] Nick Timiraos, “Jerome Powell's Inflation Whisperer: Paul Volcker” https://www.wsj.com/ 19.09.2022 

[xx]Chelsey Dulaney"Countries," Countries low-income They resort to loans Banking Risksthem" https://www.wsj.com/ 2.08.2022

[xxi] Steve H Hanke, "The floating exchange rates add to economic uncertainty" in https://www.wsj.com/

[xxii] Cristina Hidalgo, "Santander, the European bank that raises the forecasts the most..." in https://www.economiadigital.es 

[xxiii]  Andrew Ackerman, “Large regional banks could face new rules to deal with a crisis" in www.wsj.com 18.09.2022.

[xxiv] Andrew Ackerman ob. cit.,

[xxv] Oscar Gimenez, "How many companies must die...? https://www.elconfidencial.com/ 03.09.2022.

[xxvi] Adan Tooze, “LThe first global deflation has begun, and it's unclear how painful it will be." in https://www.nytimes.com/ 4.10.2022.

 Images / photographs

1. ttps://www.thermofisher.com/;  2. https://www.bing.com/ 3.   Francisco-cazalla-blogspot.com;  4. https://www.bing.com;